Read "The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't" by Nate Silver available from Rakuten Kobo. Sign up today and get $5 off your. The signal and the noise: why most predictions fail but some don't / Nate Silver. p . cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN "One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball.
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Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the taufeedenzanid.cf everything from the health of the global. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of. Editorial Reviews. taufeedenzanid.cf Review. site Best Books of the Month, September eBook features: Highlight, take notes, and search in the book .
David and Goliath. Malcolm Gladwell. Skin in the Game.
The Road to Character. David Brooks. Dan Lyons. White Trash. Nancy Isenberg. Creativity, Inc. Ed Catmull. What If? Randall Munroe. The Making of Behavioral Economics. Richard H. The Undoing Project: This Explains Everything. John Brockman. This Town. Mark Leibovich.
Barking Up the Wrong Tree. Eric Barker. Robert M. Against Empathy. Paul Bloom. Dark Money. Jane Mayer. Business Adventures. John Brooks. Burton G.
How We Got to Now. Steven Johnson.
The Signal and the Noise
Lost Connections. Johann Hari. Ben Horowitz. The Organized Mind. Daniel J. The Inevitable. Kevin Kelly. The Art of Photography.
Bruce Barnbaum. Nick Bostrom. Brief Candle in the Dark. Richard Dawkins. The Righteous Mind. Jonathan Haidt. Chip Heath. Chaos Monkeys. Antonio Garcia Martinez. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Daniel Kahneman. The Improbability Principle.
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David J. Stress Test. Timothy F. Why Nations Fail.
Daron Acemoglu. The Price of Inequality: Joseph E. Zero to One. Peter Thiel. The Sense of Style.
Steven Pinker. Command and Control. Eric Schlosser. Anders Ericsson. But What If We're Wrong? Chuck Klosterman. To Sell Is Human. Daniel H. Jonah Berger. The Wright Brothers. David McCullough. This Changes Everything.
Naomi Klein. If all of this is so simple, why did so many pundits get the election wrong? Thoughtful conservatives like George F.
Will6 and Michael Barone7 also predicted a Romney win, sometimes by near-landslide proportions. One part of the answer is obvious: An alternative interpretation is slightly less cynical but potentially harder to swallow: Having a better understanding of statistics almost certainly helps. Over the past decade, the number of people employed as statisticians in the United States has increased by 35 percent8 even as the overall job market has stagnated.
Some of the examples of failed predictions in this book concern people with exceptional intelligence and exemplary statistical training—but whose biases still got in the way.
These problems are not so simple and so this book does not promote simple answers to them. It makes some recommendations but they are philosophical as much as technical. Eventually it matures to the point when there are fewer glossy advertisements but more gains in productivity—it may even have become so commonplace that we take it for granted.
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I hope this book can accelerate the process, however slightly. This is a book about information, technology, and scientific progress. This is a book about competition, free markets, and the evolution of ideas. This is a book about the things that make us smarter than any computer, and a book about human error.
This is a book about how we learn, one step at a time, to come to knowledge of the objective world, and why we sometimes take a step back.
This is a book about prediction, which sits at the intersection of all these things. It is a study of why some predictions succeed and why some fail. My hope is that we might gain a little more insight into planning our futures and become a little less likely to repeat our mistakes. It was a spark for the Industrial Revolution in ,1 a tipping point in which civilization suddenly went from having made almost no scientific or economic progress for most of its existence to the exponential rates of growth and change that are familiar to us today.
It set in motion the events that would produce the European Enlightenment and the founding of the American Republic. But the printing press would first produce something else: As mankind came to believe it could predict its fate and choose its destiny, the bloodiest epoch in human history followed.
Instead, they were luxury items for the nobility, produced one copy at a time by scribes.
It would probably also come with a litany of transcription errors, since it would be a copy of a copy of a copy, the mistakes having multiplied and mutated through each generation. This made the accumulation of knowledge extremely difficult. Various editions of the Bible survived, along with a small number of canonical texts, like from Plato and Aristotle. But an untold amount of wisdom was lost to the ages,5 and there was little incentive to record more of it to the page.
The pursuit of knowledge seemed inherently futile, if not altogether vain. If today we feel a sense of impermanence because things are changing so rapidly, impermanence was a far more literal concern for the generations before us. While the printing press paid almost immediate dividends in the production of higher quality maps,10 the bestseller list soon came to be dominated by heretical religious texts and pseudoscientific ones.
The amount of information was increasing much more rapidly than our understanding of what to do with it, or our ability to differentiate the useful information from the mistruths.
The most enthusiastic early customers of the printing press were those who used it to evangelize. This is not to neglect the Spanish Inquisition, which began in , or the War of the Holy League from to , although those had less to do with the spread of Protestantism. Galileo was sharing his censored ideas, and Shakespeare was producing his plays. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides to them.
Instead, those who tested fate usually wound up dead. Then Caesar is assassinated. It was hard to tell the signal from the noise. The idea of man as master of his fate was gaining currency. Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty.
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These qualities were strongly associated with the Protestant work ethic, which Max Weber saw as bringing about capitalism and the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution largely began in Protestant countries and largely in those with a free press, where both religious and scientific ideas could flow without fear of censorship.
In this book, Silver discusses how probability and statistics can be used to study such phenomena as earthquakes, climate change, poker, chess, terrorism, and financial bubbles, among other phenomena. This would be a good book for economists, business majors including sports management , mathematicians, engineers and scientists including political science.
In fact, maybe this should be required reading for such majors. I was hoping Nate would describe some of his political predicting methods, but maybe he is saving that for his next book. Like 2 likes Jane Sep 19, I expected the book to be about politics and was pleasantly surprised about the variety to topics covered.
An extremely interesting book which kept my attention the entired way through. Like w writermala Apr 22, An interesting, well-written book but I found it wasn't as user-friendly as I expected. It seemed to me that a lay person couldn't grasp all the concepts Silver had stated and explained.In other words, everyone. The Inevitable. Pass it on! Outside physics however, unpredictability reigns: Creativity, Inc.
Thinking, Fast and Slow. Christian Rudder.
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